K. Parvinen (2016)
Evolution by natural selection to extinction
Evolutionary Ecology Research 17, 743-756
Available online


Abstract

Question: How does the mechanistic underpinning of a discrete-time model affect the possibility for evolutionary suicide?
Mathematical Methods: Adaptive dynamics. Relevant theory on attractor families and bifurcations.
Features of Model: A discrete-time population model derived from a continuous-time resource-consumer model with processes of harvesting resource, mate finding, and egg production.
Results: A population-level multiplicative parameter is affected both by the egg survival probability and harvest effort. Higher survival probability is selected for, which can result in a period-doubling cascade to chaos, and in evolutionary suicide through a global bifurcation. Also higher harvest effort is selected for, but it becomes a scaling factor for the model without qualitatively affecting its dynamics, and demographically stochastic extinction occurs.
Conclusion: Evolutionary predictions should be based on individual-level traits.

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